Monetary Policy In China

EXCHANGE RATE

AND MONETARY IN CHINA

POLICY

Nicholas R. Lardy
By most metrics chinawares currency remains under honord. Its current discover free increased sharply over the past dickens years, rising from $17 billion or 1.5 percent of pull in domestic product in 2001 to $46 billion or 3.2 percent of gross domestic product in 2003. mainland mainland China ran a trade surplus of $32 billion in 2004 compared with a surplus of about $25.5 billion in 2003. However, Chinas underlying current neb surplus in both 2003 and 2004 is almost certainly significantly higher than the calculated surplus for devil reasons. First, as discussed in greater peak below, the Chinese economy recently has been growing at a record-setting but clearly unsustainable pace. High ripening has stimulated an curious demand for substances, which grew by 40 percent in 2003 alone, making China the worlds third largest importer. In 2004 Chinas imports grew an additional 36 percent. When economic growth finally slows to a more sustainable pace, it is quite apt(predicate) that import growth will slow down relative to the growth of exports and Chinas trade surplus will widen. That was the variant in the last macroeconomic cycle when the trade count on strengthened substantially between 1993 and 1997.



Second, largely because of the peg of the kwai to the dollar, the real trade-weighted value of the Chinese currency has declined since the beginning of 2002 when the value of the U.S. dollar reached a peak. The positive effect of this depreciation on the trade balance occurs with a lag so it is likely that, ceteris paribus, the current account will strengthen further. The combination of these two effects likely makes the underlying current account surplus about 1.5 percent greater than the measured value. China besides has run a surplus on its capital account every year since the Asian financial crisis. Not computation the exceptionally large capital inflows in 2003, which appear to resound an expectation of exchange
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